And most of the others thought it was a place to find physicians
Those folks with their heads in the clouds about online productivity tools doing serious damage to Microsoft’s Office got a reality check today — some stats showing just how far away that may be. A sampling of U.S. PC users by research outfit NPD found that 73 percent had never even heard of Google Docs, the search sovereign’s collaborative word-processing tool, or any other manifestations of cloud computing. An additional 21 percent had heard of such things, but never tried them. And by the time you get down to those who use the online tools often and to the exclusion of a desktop suite, you have to squint to see the 0.3 percent.
Those numbers tempted some to rush out a declaration that the concept of the Web 2.0 office suite was DOA. “The scant adoption makes some sense of Microsoft’s Office Live Workspace, which went into broad beta last week. The service clearly is designed to be an adjunct to Office desktop software rather than a Web-based alternative,” writes Joe Wilcox. “If NPD’s numbers are indicative of real-world usage, Microsoft hasn’t much to worry from Google Docs and Spreadsheets or other online alternatives. Maybe too many people make too much about the Web 2.0 threat to Office.”
Or maybe too many people made too much of it too early. “We’re in the early stages of the ‘hybrid phase’ of personal productivity applications, when most people will use Web apps to extend rather than replace their old Office apps,” writes Nick Carr. “This phase will play out over a number of years as the Web technologies mature, at which point it will become natural to use purely Web-based apps (with, probably, continued local caching of data and program code). … Once people get used to using the online apps at home or at school, they may well find the idea of buying an expensive piece of software, installing it on their hard drive, and regularly patching and updating it to be awfully old-fashioned. That’s the scenario that should be of greatest immediate concern to Microsoft, and it’s a scenario that is beginning to play out, even if the numbers aren’t yet huge.”
Biggest issue I see is not software vs. SaaS, it’s the government having access to anything stored at Google any time they want under the pretext of national security, Google employees or robots snooping data files, or any other misuse of user data. There have been way too many breaches of security and of government snooping. Until such time as there is a fireproof security policy in place that cannot be broached (some time around the 12th of Never), I will not trust someone else to store my sensitive data on their servers.
I am somewhat skeptical that web based office tools will be more than ancillary to a full-fledged office suite. My reasoning is simple — what do you do if (when could be a better word) your network connection fails? Are you dead in the water? Or are you still able to get something done?
I have seen my network connection fail at some rather inconvenient times. And, considering how the price of disk storage is dropping, storing a few large applications and a number of data files locally is becoming less expensive every day.
In my opinion, the future will be transparent on-line back-up storage of data files and applications. Data files can be automatically synchronized (in the background, making the synchronization process non-disruptive) to provide an inexpensive way of surviving any hardware or software failures in your laptop or desktop. Add proper file encryption and user authentication, and on-line storage can be both secure and cost effective.
I recently had an employer who used “thin client” technology through the Internet nation wide, and I am here to tell you the latency in their system was painful because often my fingers were an entire sentence (or more!) ahead of my screen. I am neither a fast typist nor a perfect typist. I was forced to periodically stop and watch my screen catch up, so I could go back and repair my typos. If I ever have an employer that deploys a “thin client” system like that one, I will start looking for another employer. Between the network latency and the outages I experienced, I learned I am just not patient enough to tolerate such a frustrating system.
What is the difference between a thin-client running an office suite on a remote server and a web-based office suite running on a remote server? I think the answer is, “Not much, and not enough.”
An opinion from someone who thinks that so-called cloud based computing is sorta inevitable. When I look at statistics proving that the vast majority of current MS Office users would never think of using something like Google Docs my mind immediately drifts off to an “Innovators Dilemma” point of view. The whole reason why it’s a “dilemma” is because when the technology first appears it’s a joke which none of the serious players can possibly take seriously.
Of COURSE current office users wouldn’t currently touch Google Docs. Of COURSE it’s completely wrong for them. That’s the insidious beauty of the process. The innovation always looks like a stupid idea right up until the point when … it doesn’t.
Google Docs will appeal to a completely different set of users than the MS Office crowd. It’ll appeal to people to whom flexibility, ease of access, and zero maintenance concerns are way more important than document security. Folk’s planning parties and putting together lists are much more likely to be the camel’s nose underneath the tent for something like Google Docs.
No one in their right mind would buy office just to do stuff like that. But Google Docs will serve that need allowing it to survive and … bit by little bit … improve until one day, MS turns around and says WTF???
I attended the world’s first (and last) Altair convention in Albuquerque in 1977. If 0.3 percent of the people that used calculators and pencils at that time would have attended, it would have to have been held in Las Vegas. Oh wait! They did attend as soon as the name changed to Comdex.
The point is, just wait. Bill Gates and Paul Allen were at that Altair convention. They could see what was coming down the mountain. A very small percentage of the Office users can see what’s coming now.
>>>and it’s a scenario that is beginning to play out, even if the numbers aren’t yet huge.”
BS. But it’s not beginning “play out.” That’s what the numbers show.
Count me among the skeptics. Not so much because I’m a Microsoft-lover, but because (a) the open-source and online productivity apps are currently so much worse than Microsoft’s for serious work that no serious person would use them for that; (b) you get what you pay for; (c) I would never trust Google or anyone else with my files.
I even installed and tried OpenOffice.org and it was laughable. The interface is beyond lame and its feature set barely matches the old Microsoft Works. And you’re telling me Google Docs is going to be a “better” alternative Real Soon Now. Uh huh.
And Google? Cloud Computing is make-work job welfare for egomaniacal Stanford geeks. Sorry, what you’re selling I ain’t buying. Splash those Google punks on magazine covers all you want. They’re just the froth of the wave. I have a gut feeling Google’s first major downturn is just around the corner. No one can continue to spend so much money on stupid crap without consequences.
As with many things in the world of I.T., the idea arrives some while before realistically economic implementation is possible. “The Paperless Office” was announced (if I remember right) the same week as the BBC decided not to make the Sinclair their “Official” computer, and well before either the ubiquity of PCs or the internet. “Virtual Reality” is a widely understood concept - some kind of headset picks up how your eyes are moving, and generates and displays pairs of photo-realistic images (pairs to give a stereoscopic effect) at a frame rate fast enough to be flicker-free. I’m not aware that there is a single computer in the world capable of doing that in real time. Maybe there is.. but if so it’s way beyond the budget of anything but government agencies.
Have we all forgotten the (premature) announcement of the “Web Computer”? “Dumb terminals” for consumers, where all the software (and storage) would be held by the ISP? Again, it was an idea launched well before all the required components (like widespread affordable flat-rate ADSL) were in place. Trying to run a “Web computer” network over a dial-up internet was doomed to failure. But, now we DO have ubiquitous ADSL connections. Back then the idea was championed by Larry Ellison, with support from IBM (who, I think, actually sold a handful of “Web compouters!) Looks like IBM has dropped out of selling PC’s… but with the arrival of Google and its deep pockets, maybe the idea does have legs. But probably as part of a complete package - the long-abandoned “web computer” being the other component.
As rgrace gracelessly notes, there is another alternative in OpenOffice. (And I don’t know what problems you had with it, rgrace, but it works great for me.) But more generally, why are we trying to network these applications when processing, memory, and disk space are all getting massively cheaper and better in our desktops and laptops?
Even as someone who worked at Microsoft for a long time and an avid Office user, I do see the fundamental shift coming. It is a lot like the shift in computing from mainframes to minicomputers to personal computer based platforms. Ubiquity of connectivity will come and we are in a relatively early phase still of broadband availability overall. of course Google docs is no match for Office today. But there is a tremendous amount of energy and dollars going into the continuing development of web tools and platforms, and those will ultimately make desktop apps that don’t seamlessly blend with connected services anachronisms. I do think Microsoft recognizes this, even as they guffaw at Google docs today, the question is can and will they move fast enough to cannibalize their own business to embrace and take advantage of this new shift. Can anyone name any big broad based desktop apps companies today besided Microsoft, Adobe, and perhaps Apple (for their own platform)? Innovation on the web platform is far outpacing that on the desktop, driven by Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, and a host of others.
I think th motives of the author are suspect. There are many alternatives to Office that weren’t mentioned and are highly used and highly effective. NeoOffice and OpenOffice are great products and free or supported by a donation. How those missed the article is very suspect to me.
I think everyone who has blogged here has hit the nail on the head in regard to cloud computing. There is also another issue that may come up. What if (?) Google sees this great breakthrough and now decides that there is a buck to be made. They could just as easily come back and say “Hey! You want your data? Cross my palms with some money and you get it.” No good idea goes without profit first.
Gordon, unless you’re customizing the UI, I can’t even see how Open Office’s word processor is usable for anything beyond simple text editing. And presentations? Please. I got fed up with Word and its extremely annoying quirks enough to give the other a try; after fiddling around with it for an hour I frankly had to throw in the towel. For the stuff I do, OO isn’t cutting it. I’m stuck in the duopoly of Adobe and Microsoft because that’s where all the most powerful apps are for my work. I don’t see any open-source option ever making a dent.
RedRat has a point.
How long ago did Firefox have 0.3% usage? Viral propagation can go fairly fast when it takes off
Has to be a good product first. :)~
I must agree with John. Online software services are just embryonic right now. I use Google Docs for quite a bit of personal stuff. It gets the job done.
This is shaping up to be one of those long-tail things where niche markets will be uncovered. Many online apps will become available to for specialty users. Basic documents and storage are free while advanced features will come at a small price.
A vox pop of IT users is a pretty useless activity. If users knew much about IT, there would be no need for tech support! Ask the average PC users what “kind of PC have you got?” and they’ll answer “it’s a Windows one.” - but they probably won’t know what kind of Windows. rgrace is sadly mistaken if he thinks he’s a “typical” Office user. Word IS mostly used as an (overpriced) text editor, and only the tiniest minority of Access or Excel users need even 10% of the features. But… everybody else has got Office, so they HAVE to have it too. MS helps them believe this BS by spreading panic stories about “compatibility”. People who’ve migrated from MS Office to Open Office (which includes parts of HM Government and my local city council) seem to find that they don’t miss the “Bloatware” features in the least - and that “retraining” (another MS panic-theme) took all of half an hour per employee.
I am not a techie person so I may not understand, but it seems that changing demog’s shifting to the anytime/anywhere wireless world may find google docs useful. At least when I read this I thought goog docs perhaps is slower to adopt to the desk top because its a late entrant to an established market, but for the cell phone/pda it might be a nice feature? Store it in one place and I can access it from where ever I am using whatever means I choose. That is useful. As one commenter noted, security/privacy will be a concern though.